April 24, 2020
The Long Haul
Day 36
Nothing about the Covid-19 virus makes sense!
The more we learn, the more confused we become and the less we know.
It is a given that politics will do little to help us understand and defeat the virus. Our political system was irreparably broken long before Covid-19 reached our shores. It will not be repaired in the next election either, no matter who is elected president for we are a nation divided against itself. We are politically divided by almost every demographic: age, geography, income, education, race, religion etc. The list is endless. Doubters and optimists need only look at the political makeup and actions of Congress to come face-to-face with the inescapable reality:
Nothing unifies us, not even the greatest threat our nation has faced since World War II.
A vibrant, roaring economic comeback will not help us understand and defeat the virus either. It will surely make things worse, prolong the outbreak and lead to more cases and deaths. Governors that abandon stay-at-home orders and social-distancing guidelines and open their doors for business-as-usual too early will mark some of the most vulnerable among us for an early and preventable death.
The US government is considering issuing “an antibody ID card” to people who have had the virus, are likely to be immune from further infection and are able to safely return to work.
Perhaps the politicians who are so anxious to get nail salons and tattoo parlors back open should issue “an expendable ID card” to those they decide do not need to be protected from the virus.
Science is our best hope to understand and defeat the Covid-19. But for the moment at least the science too is confusing.
It is especially confusing when science and politics interact. Science is too often used to obfuscate and delude rather than inform. Last night there was “breaking news” from our president who told us that bleach and other disinfectants kill the virus on hard surfaces. We were told that the sun can kill and degrade the virus. This was hardly news to anyone paying attention for the past two months. The real news came moments later when our president suggested perhaps we should ingest bleach as a way to cure Covid-19!
This is not science. It is a political distraction, intended to offer false hope that a cure is just round the corner and that our president is in charge.
Even the good science is confusing. The best hope for crushing the virus absent a vaccine or effective treatment seems to be more testing and isolation. We need to isolate ourselves to isolate the virus. In other words, more of what we are doing right now.
How well we are doing at stopping the spread of the virus can be measured by a reproduction rate calculation known as R0, pronounced R naught. The R0 calculates the number of infections expected to stem from a single case. If the R0 number is one each infected person will infect one additional person. If the number is greater than one, the virus will jump to more than one person and spread exponentially. If it below one, the number of new cases will drop steadily toward zero.
This seems straightforward but the calculation of the R0 is not. It is a an imperfect calculus built on underlying data that changes daily. That said, it is what we have. The founders of Instagram have developed a R0 analysis of every state. Their process uses what they call an Rt calculator. https://rt.live/
It is important to note that the R0 is a calculation based on what will happen, not what has happened. It assumes the states will not relax the restrictions that are in place today. If stay-at-home orders are lifted and social-distancing abandoned, the R0 and infection rate will rise.
Not surprisingly, Vermont, my home state, has the best R0 rate at the moment: .82. This means that every infected Vermonter will pass the disease to less than one. That number will drop with each generational jump of the disease, pushing the number of those infected closer to zero. This is not a cure but it is a solution.
Today, 10 states have R0 rates at below one. Predictably Vermont and Washington, states that moved early and aggressively to control Covid-19 are on the list. Perhaps surprisingly Florida, a state that closed its beaches late and only reluctantly made its residents stay at home, is also on the list. Today Florida has an impressive .87 R0 rating.
Florida’s current success will disappear if it relaxes its grip on the virus too soon. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a scientist by training, illustrated just how fragile the calculations designed to protect us are.
Germany has an R0 today of 1.0. If it rises to 1.1 Germany will reach the full capacity of its healthcare system by October. At a reproduction rate of 1.2, the system will be overrun by July. An R0 of 1.3 will topple the healthcare system by June.
Sorry that was a lot of science, math really. I like this calculation; it is our best way to understand how our actions can affect the spread of the virus. There is little room for us to relax.
Real life numbers demonstrate that the path back to normal will be painfully slow. Consider what is happening in Spain, a hard-hit country that quickly closed its borders and locked down tight in mid March. Only the United States has more cases and only the US and Italy have more deaths than Spain.
The growth of the virus in Spain has slowed but it still high and it continues to spike. For example, new cases, new deaths and unresolved cases, each an important metric, have risen in each of the last three days.
Real progress will be slow and our ability to see or recognize that progress will be even slower.
This reminds me of a lyric from an old Harry Belafonte song:
“It was clear as mud and it covered the ground;”
“And the confusion made my brain go round.”
It is an appropriate metaphor. Harry was singing about the birds and the bees!
Be safe!
The Long Haul
Day 36
Nothing about the Covid-19 virus makes sense!
The more we learn, the more confused we become and the less we know.
It is a given that politics will do little to help us understand and defeat the virus. Our political system was irreparably broken long before Covid-19 reached our shores. It will not be repaired in the next election either, no matter who is elected president for we are a nation divided against itself. We are politically divided by almost every demographic: age, geography, income, education, race, religion etc. The list is endless. Doubters and optimists need only look at the political makeup and actions of Congress to come face-to-face with the inescapable reality:
Nothing unifies us, not even the greatest threat our nation has faced since World War II.
A vibrant, roaring economic comeback will not help us understand and defeat the virus either. It will surely make things worse, prolong the outbreak and lead to more cases and deaths. Governors that abandon stay-at-home orders and social-distancing guidelines and open their doors for business-as-usual too early will mark some of the most vulnerable among us for an early and preventable death.
The US government is considering issuing “an antibody ID card” to people who have had the virus, are likely to be immune from further infection and are able to safely return to work.
Perhaps the politicians who are so anxious to get nail salons and tattoo parlors back open should issue “an expendable ID card” to those they decide do not need to be protected from the virus.
Science is our best hope to understand and defeat the Covid-19. But for the moment at least the science too is confusing.
It is especially confusing when science and politics interact. Science is too often used to obfuscate and delude rather than inform. Last night there was “breaking news” from our president who told us that bleach and other disinfectants kill the virus on hard surfaces. We were told that the sun can kill and degrade the virus. This was hardly news to anyone paying attention for the past two months. The real news came moments later when our president suggested perhaps we should ingest bleach as a way to cure Covid-19!
This is not science. It is a political distraction, intended to offer false hope that a cure is just round the corner and that our president is in charge.
Even the good science is confusing. The best hope for crushing the virus absent a vaccine or effective treatment seems to be more testing and isolation. We need to isolate ourselves to isolate the virus. In other words, more of what we are doing right now.
How well we are doing at stopping the spread of the virus can be measured by a reproduction rate calculation known as R0, pronounced R naught. The R0 calculates the number of infections expected to stem from a single case. If the R0 number is one each infected person will infect one additional person. If the number is greater than one, the virus will jump to more than one person and spread exponentially. If it below one, the number of new cases will drop steadily toward zero.
This seems straightforward but the calculation of the R0 is not. It is a an imperfect calculus built on underlying data that changes daily. That said, it is what we have. The founders of Instagram have developed a R0 analysis of every state. Their process uses what they call an Rt calculator. https://rt.live/
It is important to note that the R0 is a calculation based on what will happen, not what has happened. It assumes the states will not relax the restrictions that are in place today. If stay-at-home orders are lifted and social-distancing abandoned, the R0 and infection rate will rise.
Not surprisingly, Vermont, my home state, has the best R0 rate at the moment: .82. This means that every infected Vermonter will pass the disease to less than one. That number will drop with each generational jump of the disease, pushing the number of those infected closer to zero. This is not a cure but it is a solution.
Today, 10 states have R0 rates at below one. Predictably Vermont and Washington, states that moved early and aggressively to control Covid-19 are on the list. Perhaps surprisingly Florida, a state that closed its beaches late and only reluctantly made its residents stay at home, is also on the list. Today Florida has an impressive .87 R0 rating.
Florida’s current success will disappear if it relaxes its grip on the virus too soon. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a scientist by training, illustrated just how fragile the calculations designed to protect us are.
Germany has an R0 today of 1.0. If it rises to 1.1 Germany will reach the full capacity of its healthcare system by October. At a reproduction rate of 1.2, the system will be overrun by July. An R0 of 1.3 will topple the healthcare system by June.
Sorry that was a lot of science, math really. I like this calculation; it is our best way to understand how our actions can affect the spread of the virus. There is little room for us to relax.
Real life numbers demonstrate that the path back to normal will be painfully slow. Consider what is happening in Spain, a hard-hit country that quickly closed its borders and locked down tight in mid March. Only the United States has more cases and only the US and Italy have more deaths than Spain.
The growth of the virus in Spain has slowed but it still high and it continues to spike. For example, new cases, new deaths and unresolved cases, each an important metric, have risen in each of the last three days.
Real progress will be slow and our ability to see or recognize that progress will be even slower.
This reminds me of a lyric from an old Harry Belafonte song:
“It was clear as mud and it covered the ground;”
“And the confusion made my brain go round.”
It is an appropriate metaphor. Harry was singing about the birds and the bees!
Be safe!
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