June 16, 2020
The 73rd Year
Day 88
After almost five months of wondering when the Covid-19 pandemic will be over and restaurants, bars, ballgames, concerts, weddings and funerals will safe again there are three possible answers:
1) When a vaccine is created, approved, distributed and administered.
2) When a treatment is determined to be efficacious and widely available to all who develop the virus.
3) When the population is determined to be immune and the virus is no longer a threat to widely spread through our communities.
Say it ain’t so! These are our only options?
Yep.
There is no magic bullet, no miraculous cure, no superhero dropping from the sky to rescue humanity from the evil clutches of the Covid-19 demon.
Superman and Batman have abandoned us. Captain America: where are you?
Americans do not want to hear or read that the coronavirus will continue to control our lives for the next year or two. They want a quick fix, a superhero with a super-cure.
Americans in lockdown have been glued to their mobile devices, televisions and computers. They watch the breathless reporting on cable news several times a day. And studies estimate we spend eight hours a day, every day streaming.
What do we watch? Superheroes! Marvel videos like Captain America, Iron Man and Spiderman are among the most popular.
This began after 9/11. The attack, researchers say, made us feel vulnerable, insecure and in some cases paranoid. We were in real danger from a foreign threat on our own soil for the first time. The story played out in our minds as a simple good versus evil tale and we began looking for a superhero to provide a quick fix.
There was none. There never is.
Now the Covid-19 virus comes along, another foreign invader. No I am not saying it comes from China. It is foreign in the sense that it is uninvited yet it has entered our homes and now controls our lives.
With no obvious superhero in sight, we are left with the three options listed above.
1) A vaccine - Medical experts tell us it will be a year to 18 months at the earliest before a vaccine is developed, approved and deployable. They have been saying this for five months. America’s favorite epidemiologist Tony Fauci has said that several vaccines will likely be necessary as several billion doses will be needed to protect the world’s population.
The New York Times reports that researchers across the globe are developing 135 different vaccines. Other reports put the number at 200. There is some hope for an early breakthrough. Two of the vaccines are in the final trial stages and could be approved by the end of the year.
As this is written more than 2 million Americans have been infected and about 117,000 have died. There are no reliable forecasts that predict how many lives will be lost by next January, the best case scenario for a workable vaccine.
But forecasters now conservatively expect there will be 135,000 Covid-19 deaths in the US by August. Everyday there are about 20,000 new cases and 800 deaths in the US. If this continues through the end of the year, an additional 100,000 Americans could die.
2) Treatment - If a vaccine is the long sought after silver bullet, treatment drugs are the bridge to a happy ending. There are many treatment trials underway. President Trump has trumpeted hydroxychloroquine as the go-to-right-now, efficacious-treatment and our path to redemption but scientists are skeptical and warn his advice is dangerous. It does not appear likely that a treatment drug will be approved and ready before the end of the year so the bridge to a cure may not be available before the vaccine.
3) Immunity - This is commonly referred to as herd immunity or herd protection. After about 70 to 80 percent of the population becomes infected or are vaccinated, antibodies will be be spread widely and the virus will have no where to go. The virus will either slow to a manageable crawl or disappear. Thus the herd is protected.
The US is a long way from reaching herd immunity. If 70 percent of 336 million Americans are infected that means 235,200,000 must develop antibodies or be vaccinated. For now there is no vaccine or bomb proof treatment. If the current death rate of about 1.3 percent continues and there is no vaccine some 3 million Americans would die before herd immunity is reached.
No one should want this option!
They may not be a superhero in our midst but if we all do our part to fight the virus, we can collectively slow it down until a cure is deployable.
We should:
Wear a mask
Stay six feet away from anyone not in our Covid-19 bubble.
Meet people outside whenever possible.
Avoid parties, gatherings, activities of 10 people or more.
If you must go to a large party, bring your own food and drink, glasses and utensils.
Wash your hands, a lot!
Be vigilant, the world will heal.
Stay safe.
The 73rd Year
Day 88
After almost five months of wondering when the Covid-19 pandemic will be over and restaurants, bars, ballgames, concerts, weddings and funerals will safe again there are three possible answers:
1) When a vaccine is created, approved, distributed and administered.
2) When a treatment is determined to be efficacious and widely available to all who develop the virus.
3) When the population is determined to be immune and the virus is no longer a threat to widely spread through our communities.
Say it ain’t so! These are our only options?
Yep.
There is no magic bullet, no miraculous cure, no superhero dropping from the sky to rescue humanity from the evil clutches of the Covid-19 demon.
Superman and Batman have abandoned us. Captain America: where are you?
Americans do not want to hear or read that the coronavirus will continue to control our lives for the next year or two. They want a quick fix, a superhero with a super-cure.
Americans in lockdown have been glued to their mobile devices, televisions and computers. They watch the breathless reporting on cable news several times a day. And studies estimate we spend eight hours a day, every day streaming.
What do we watch? Superheroes! Marvel videos like Captain America, Iron Man and Spiderman are among the most popular.
This began after 9/11. The attack, researchers say, made us feel vulnerable, insecure and in some cases paranoid. We were in real danger from a foreign threat on our own soil for the first time. The story played out in our minds as a simple good versus evil tale and we began looking for a superhero to provide a quick fix.
There was none. There never is.
Now the Covid-19 virus comes along, another foreign invader. No I am not saying it comes from China. It is foreign in the sense that it is uninvited yet it has entered our homes and now controls our lives.
With no obvious superhero in sight, we are left with the three options listed above.
1) A vaccine - Medical experts tell us it will be a year to 18 months at the earliest before a vaccine is developed, approved and deployable. They have been saying this for five months. America’s favorite epidemiologist Tony Fauci has said that several vaccines will likely be necessary as several billion doses will be needed to protect the world’s population.
The New York Times reports that researchers across the globe are developing 135 different vaccines. Other reports put the number at 200. There is some hope for an early breakthrough. Two of the vaccines are in the final trial stages and could be approved by the end of the year.
As this is written more than 2 million Americans have been infected and about 117,000 have died. There are no reliable forecasts that predict how many lives will be lost by next January, the best case scenario for a workable vaccine.
But forecasters now conservatively expect there will be 135,000 Covid-19 deaths in the US by August. Everyday there are about 20,000 new cases and 800 deaths in the US. If this continues through the end of the year, an additional 100,000 Americans could die.
2) Treatment - If a vaccine is the long sought after silver bullet, treatment drugs are the bridge to a happy ending. There are many treatment trials underway. President Trump has trumpeted hydroxychloroquine as the go-to-right-now, efficacious-treatment and our path to redemption but scientists are skeptical and warn his advice is dangerous. It does not appear likely that a treatment drug will be approved and ready before the end of the year so the bridge to a cure may not be available before the vaccine.
3) Immunity - This is commonly referred to as herd immunity or herd protection. After about 70 to 80 percent of the population becomes infected or are vaccinated, antibodies will be be spread widely and the virus will have no where to go. The virus will either slow to a manageable crawl or disappear. Thus the herd is protected.
The US is a long way from reaching herd immunity. If 70 percent of 336 million Americans are infected that means 235,200,000 must develop antibodies or be vaccinated. For now there is no vaccine or bomb proof treatment. If the current death rate of about 1.3 percent continues and there is no vaccine some 3 million Americans would die before herd immunity is reached.
No one should want this option!
They may not be a superhero in our midst but if we all do our part to fight the virus, we can collectively slow it down until a cure is deployable.
We should:
Wear a mask
Stay six feet away from anyone not in our Covid-19 bubble.
Meet people outside whenever possible.
Avoid parties, gatherings, activities of 10 people or more.
If you must go to a large party, bring your own food and drink, glasses and utensils.
Wash your hands, a lot!
Be vigilant, the world will heal.
Stay safe.
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