May 22, 2020
The 73rd Year
Day 64
Welcome to life on the Covid 19 plateau. Plan on living there for the foreseeable future.
The Covid-19 plateau is not the breathtaking high chaparral found in the deserts of Arizona and Southern California. It is not the metaphoric plateau that keeps our mood swings in check. Nor is it the place where most interpersonal relationships reside after a few euphoric, passion-filled years.
The Covid-19 plateau is annoying, inconvenient and deadly. It was supposed to be short-lived. The experts told us so. Coronavirus cases and deaths were supposed to climb to a peak, stall for a bit and then drop steadily. There were many models that showed this. In fact, there were models that showed this for every state and the District of Columbia.
The experts lied to the American public early on when they told us masks were not necessary. They were trying to prevent binge buying so medical masks could be preserved for front-line health care workers and first responders. Good intentions notwithstanding, the experts we expect to be straight shooters misled the American public.
Now they are lying to us again. The plateau is here to stay. There will not be a precipitous drop in cases and deaths. There will not be a second and third wave.
There is just going to be one wave and it will be wavey!
Cases and deaths will rise and fall along a plateau for months perhaps two years until a vaccine is approved, manufactured and dispersed to 331 million Americans and billions more around the world.
The plateau’s peaks and valleys will be determined by us. If we leave our homes, return to work and some semblance of a normal life wearing masks and social distancing, the waves will be small and the plateau low. If we ignore the guidance, the plateau will be high and the waves perfect for surfing. Think Hawaii's Waimea Bay!
A quick look at the data compiled by Johns Hopkins and others makes the case for a long wave. For the record, I use a site called Worldometer for data because it utilizes the Johns Hopkins information and several other sources. It also reports daily on cases in US prisons, the territories, the military and Navajo nation. It is, frankly, easier to read than the Hopkins’ site.
Below is what the wave looks like now in the US. The first number is cases, the second deaths.
May 16 - 23,488/1,218
May 17 - 19,891/865
May 18 - 22,630/1,003
May 19 -20,289/1,552
May 20 - 22,140/1,403
May 21 -28,179/1,418
It is important to acknowledge that every source that compiles data is incomplete. States testing and reporting vary widely. For example, at the low end Idaho administers only 22,026 tests per one million population. Rhode Island tests 116,454 per million. Idaho tests 1.2 percent of its 1.787 million residents; Rhode Island tests 11.5 percent of its 1.059 million residents.
The international data is worse. Reporting from China has been incomplete for weeks. India has reported about 121,000 cases and 2,300 deaths, the third highest in Asia. But India has tested less than one percent of its population. Clearly there is an under-reported epidemic there.
Epidemiologists have warned political leaders not to focus too much on any one data point or single day. Many experts suggest that hospitalizations and ICU admissions reveal more about the wave than any other data point. State mandated stay at home orders and social distancing requirements spared most hospitals the frightening influx of patients forecast at the outset of the pandemic.
Most hospitals now can handle the daily intake of Covid-19 patients and are again accepting other, non emergency patients.
But the coronavirus cases keep coming. And hospital admissions ride the wave like the other data. New admissions in Rhode Island peaked at 51 on May 4. Social distancing has positioned the plateau well below the peak but Rhode Islanders are riding the wave nevertheless. In the last five days, new admissions there have been 15, 23, 24, 17 and 14. This data was produced by the Health Department and compiled by WPRI-TV.
And this brings us to a point that was made early on but got lost as the fervor to reopen states bubbled over.
Americans stopped working, stayed at home and essentially put their lives on hold to give hospitals time to gear up and manage the crisis. It was never about beating the disease. It was always about buying time. The disease will be with us until a vaccine is developed.
So welcome to life on the plateau. Learn to love it and wear a mask!
Be safe!
The 73rd Year
Day 64
Welcome to life on the Covid 19 plateau. Plan on living there for the foreseeable future.
The Covid-19 plateau is not the breathtaking high chaparral found in the deserts of Arizona and Southern California. It is not the metaphoric plateau that keeps our mood swings in check. Nor is it the place where most interpersonal relationships reside after a few euphoric, passion-filled years.
The Covid-19 plateau is annoying, inconvenient and deadly. It was supposed to be short-lived. The experts told us so. Coronavirus cases and deaths were supposed to climb to a peak, stall for a bit and then drop steadily. There were many models that showed this. In fact, there were models that showed this for every state and the District of Columbia.
The experts lied to the American public early on when they told us masks were not necessary. They were trying to prevent binge buying so medical masks could be preserved for front-line health care workers and first responders. Good intentions notwithstanding, the experts we expect to be straight shooters misled the American public.
Now they are lying to us again. The plateau is here to stay. There will not be a precipitous drop in cases and deaths. There will not be a second and third wave.
There is just going to be one wave and it will be wavey!
Cases and deaths will rise and fall along a plateau for months perhaps two years until a vaccine is approved, manufactured and dispersed to 331 million Americans and billions more around the world.
The plateau’s peaks and valleys will be determined by us. If we leave our homes, return to work and some semblance of a normal life wearing masks and social distancing, the waves will be small and the plateau low. If we ignore the guidance, the plateau will be high and the waves perfect for surfing. Think Hawaii's Waimea Bay!
A quick look at the data compiled by Johns Hopkins and others makes the case for a long wave. For the record, I use a site called Worldometer for data because it utilizes the Johns Hopkins information and several other sources. It also reports daily on cases in US prisons, the territories, the military and Navajo nation. It is, frankly, easier to read than the Hopkins’ site.
Below is what the wave looks like now in the US. The first number is cases, the second deaths.
May 16 - 23,488/1,218
May 17 - 19,891/865
May 18 - 22,630/1,003
May 19 -20,289/1,552
May 20 - 22,140/1,403
May 21 -28,179/1,418
It is important to acknowledge that every source that compiles data is incomplete. States testing and reporting vary widely. For example, at the low end Idaho administers only 22,026 tests per one million population. Rhode Island tests 116,454 per million. Idaho tests 1.2 percent of its 1.787 million residents; Rhode Island tests 11.5 percent of its 1.059 million residents.
The international data is worse. Reporting from China has been incomplete for weeks. India has reported about 121,000 cases and 2,300 deaths, the third highest in Asia. But India has tested less than one percent of its population. Clearly there is an under-reported epidemic there.
Epidemiologists have warned political leaders not to focus too much on any one data point or single day. Many experts suggest that hospitalizations and ICU admissions reveal more about the wave than any other data point. State mandated stay at home orders and social distancing requirements spared most hospitals the frightening influx of patients forecast at the outset of the pandemic.
Most hospitals now can handle the daily intake of Covid-19 patients and are again accepting other, non emergency patients.
But the coronavirus cases keep coming. And hospital admissions ride the wave like the other data. New admissions in Rhode Island peaked at 51 on May 4. Social distancing has positioned the plateau well below the peak but Rhode Islanders are riding the wave nevertheless. In the last five days, new admissions there have been 15, 23, 24, 17 and 14. This data was produced by the Health Department and compiled by WPRI-TV.
And this brings us to a point that was made early on but got lost as the fervor to reopen states bubbled over.
Americans stopped working, stayed at home and essentially put their lives on hold to give hospitals time to gear up and manage the crisis. It was never about beating the disease. It was always about buying time. The disease will be with us until a vaccine is developed.
So welcome to life on the plateau. Learn to love it and wear a mask!
Be safe!
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